The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells is approaching the final rounds and finding value in the remaining matches and outrights is the name of the game for bettors.
On the men’s side, Roger Federer’s dream draw at Indian Wells continues: his path to the final involves a group of players he is 27-1 against. The only opponent on his side of the draw to ever record a win against him is Jeremy Chardy, his round of 16 opponent, who beat him on clay in 2014. Not surprisingly, Federer is a heavy favorite to win the tournament outright, currently listed at about 8/13, which reflects his dominant play in 2018 and the leisure walk of a draw he’s faced with. If you are thinking about a Federer wager, I would recommend visiting this top-list of offshore sportsbooks to find the best price, as the odds given previously are just the average.
In the final, itself, he’ll meet one of a group of players he is 10-50 against, and of those, his most likely opponent is Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro is a legitimate threat to Federer. He has beaten him three times in hardcourt finals and has a winning record in those circumstances. Federer would likely be the favorite still, as he’s unbeaten in 2018 and the best player of all time, but Del Potro won’t be a longshot by any means.
The women’s draw is a little more even. Venus Williams eliminated her sister, Serena, but is still a longshot to win the tournament at around 9/1. World #1 Simona Halep is unsurprisingly the betting favorite (at roughly 5/2). She made it through a nightmarish draw at the 2018 Australian Open, before falling in three sets to Caroline Wozniacki in the final. Halep’s draw from the quarterfinals is mostly favorable, likely facing Karolina Pliskova in the semis, against whom Halep is on a three-win streak and hasn’t lost since 2016. Pliskova’s opponent in the quarterfinals, Naomi Osaka, is something of a hot bet right now, with bettors seeing value in the 16/11 underdog.
As far as finding value in outright bets, it’s hard to go against Roger Federer, even as an odds-on favorite. If you’re feeling flighty, Del Potro at 4/1 is a reasonable option, considering both his decent record against Federer and his play in 2018. On the women’s side, Venus is worth a look at her longshot odds, as beating Serena is very promising and, as Halep herself has conceded, Serena probably should have been the 1-seed in the draw. Angelique Kerber at 11/4 doesn’t make a lot of sense given her record against Halep, and Pliskova has the toughest path the final.