Not Only Is Nick Kyrgios Favored To Beat Rafael Nadal At Wimbledon, But Favored To Beat Him Straight Sets

Despite Rafael Nadal winning a dramatic five-set win over Taylor Fritz in the Wimbledon quarterfinals despite a stomach injury, sportsbooks don’t believe that Nadal will be able to do the same against Nick Kyrgios in the semifinals.  

Kyrgios is given -139 odds, or an implied 58.2% chance to reach his first major final, per odds via OddsChecker here https://www.oddschecker.com/us/tennis/wimbledon-mens Meanwhile, Nadal is given +130 odds, or an implied 43.5% chance to win the match. In fact, sportsbooks are so sure that Kyrgios is going to win, that they have Kyrgios in straight sets as the most likely outcome at +350, or an implied 22.2% chance to be the outcome. Sportsbooks give just +600 odds or an implied 14.3% chance that the match gets to a 5^th set, and +650 odds or an implied 13.3% chance that Nadal wins in five. 

Bettors aren’t as convinced. Since Nadal’s victory over Fritz, bettors are split 50-50 between Kyrgios and Nadal. They’re nowhere near as certain of Kyrgios’ victory as sportsbooks seem to be. 

“Nick Kyrgios is playing the best tennis of his life, but Rafael Nadal is still one of the greatest tennis players ever,” said OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman. “Even with an injury, Nadal managed to gut out a huge victory over a red-hot Taylor Fritz who hadn’t dropped a set at Wimbledon and had dropped just two in his last 8 matches. This will also be the fourth time that these two have faced off at a major, Nadal is 2-1 and Kyrgios hasn’t won beaten Nadal at a major since 2014. So, despite his injury, it’s still hard to see Nadal going down against Kyrgios, especially in straight sets.” 

NICK KYRGIOS V. RAFAEL NADAL