You can view a full copy of the men’s draw here.
First Quarter
Seeded Players: Novak Djokovic (1), Tomas Berdych (7), Nicolas Almagro (12), Richard Gasquet (16), Kei Nishikori (17), Florian Mayer (18), Kevin Anderson (29), Andy Roddick (30)
These days, it’s a pretty safe bet to pencil Novak Djokovic into the finals. That makes it awfully unlucky to be drawn into his quarter. There are a few guys that could give him a run for his money if their having a good day, and a few more if Djokovic is having an off day, but those are few and far between now. Andy Roddick may have another surprise left in him, but he’s definitely got his work cut out. Richard Gasquet is another one to watch. When he’s on, he’s got the best one-handed backhand in the game.
Semifinalist: Novak Djokovic (1)
Possible Sleeper: Andy Roddick (30)
Best First/Second Round Match: Robin Haase vs. Pablo Andujar
Second Quarter
Seeded Players: Andy Murray (4), Mardy Fish (8), John Isner (11), Gilles Simon (13), Juan Monaco (22), Stanislas Wawrinka (23), Viktor Troicki (25), Julien Benneteau (32)
Last year, Andy Murray rather shockingly lost in the second round to Donald Young. He followed that up with another miserable performance in Miami. This year should be different. He’s not showing the same signs of a post-Australia slump that he showed last year. In fact, he’s fresh off a final appearance in Dubai, where he beat Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. Regardless of the fact that he lost to Roger Federer in straights, that Djokovic triumph should give him an extra confidence boost heading into Indian Wells this week. An early challenge could potentially be Ryan Harrison, who pushed Murray at the Australian and pushed Federer last year at Indian Wells, but he’ll have to make it through Cipolla and Troicki to set up that rematch. John Isner, who is now just outside the Top 10 at No. 11, probably poses the most significant threat to Murray in this quarter.
Semifinalist: Andy Murray (4)
Possible Sleeper: John Isner (11)
Best First/Second Round Match: Viktor Troicki vs. Ryan Harrison
Third Quarter
Seeded Players: Roger Federer (3), David Ferrer (5), Juan Martin del Potro (9), Gael Monfils (14), Fernando Verdasco (19), Jurgen Melzer (20), Milos Raonic (27), Juan Ignacio Chela (31)
Federer doesn’t have the easiest draw, actually, it’s probably the most difficult of the Top 4; but, he’s coming into the tournament straight off of his 72nd career title in Dubai, and nothing creates confidence like winning. He will likely face young Canadian, Milos Raonic, in the third round, which has the potential to be a blockbuster match. While an encounter with Raonic would certainly push Federer, there’s a good chance he would survive to move on to a possible fourth round match against Gael Monfils or Jurgen Melzer, and a must see quarterfinal against either Juan Martin del Potro or David Ferrer. Del Potro poses the biggest threat in this section, but Federer seems to have his number at the moment.
Semifinalist: Roger Federer (3)
Possible Sleeper: Fernando Verdasco (19)
Best First/Second Round Match: David Ferrer vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Fourth Quarter
Seeded Players: Rafael Nadal (2), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (6), Janko Tipsarevic (10), Feliciano Lopez (15), Alexandr Dolgopolov (21), Marin Cilic (24), Marcel Granollers (26), Radek Stepanek (28)
It’s unclear what sort of form Rafael Nadal is in coming into Indian Wells. He hasn’t played a match since the grueling five set Austrlian Open final, which leaves a lot of questions. What kind of lasting impact might that match have on the rest of his season? This can go one of two ways. His 7-5, 4-6, 2-6, 7-6(5), 5-7 defeat to Novak Djokovic at the end of January could either spur him on to new heights, or allow Djokovic even further into his head. There’s little doubt in my mind that Nadal can navigate his way through his quarter of the draw, which actually isn’t all that strong. The only real challenge could come in the quarterfinals, where he’s due to meet Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. While there’s a question mark surrounding Nadal’s physical and mental state at the moment, it’s still tough to see this quarter ending with any other semifinalist.
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal (2)
Possible Sleeper: Alexandr Dolgopolov (21)
Best First/Second Round Match: Michael Llodra vs. Ernests Gulbis
Semi Final 1: Novak Djokovic (1) d. Andy Murray (4)
Semi Final 2: Rafael Nadal (2) d. Roger Federer (3)
Final: Novak Djokovic (1) d. Rafael Nadal (2)
Andrea Lubinsky
Indian Wells WTA Preview
The qualifying tournament at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells is underway and main draw action is set to begin on Wednesday for the WTA. I will be bringing you a week’s worth of live coverage of the tournament beginning Saturday, so be sure to check back frequently. If you would like more up to the minute updates, you can follow me on twitter @achangeofends. In anticipation of my trip, I’d like to give you a preview of the women’s draw.
First Quarter
Seeded Players: Victoria Azarenka (1), Agnieszka Radwanska (5), Jelena Jankovic (12), Julia Goerges (14), Yanina Wickmayer (22), Anabel Medina Garrigues (24), Svetlana Kuznetsova (25), Flavia Pennetta (27)
Perhaps the most clear cut section of the draw, Victoria Azarenka should have no trouble continuing her domination of the 2012 WTA Tour by dominating the top quarter of the Indian Wells draw. While there are some possible pitfalls in Azarenka’s draw, including Svetlana Kuznetsova, and Julia Goerges, the biggest test will likely come in the quarterfinals where she is due to meet Agnieszka Radwanska for the fourth time this year. Azarenka has won all three 2012 encounters and based on their most recent match, in Doha, has definitely gotten into Radwanska’s head. On the other hand, Radwanska is having a career year so far and certainly has the potential (and the desire) to snap her losing streak against Azarenka. However, to get that chance, she will have to make her way through a tough second round match against either Sorana Cirstea or Iveta Benesova, followed by possible meetings with Flavia Pennetta and Jelena Jankovic.
Semi Finalist: Victoria Azarenka (1)
Possible Sleeper: Flavia Pennetta (27)
Best First Round Match: Sorana Cirstea vs. Iveta Benesova
Second Quarter
Seeded Players: Petra Kvitova (3), Li Na (8), Vera Zvonareva (9), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (13), Angelique Kerber (18), Daniela Hantuchova (19), Zheng Jie (31), Christina McHale (32)
There are a lot of interesting things going on in this quarter. At first glance, Petra Kvitova should have the advantage. She’s the top seed in this part of the draw and had her breakout season last year. But, there are a lot of players who could make waves in this part of the draw. Christina McHale seems on the verge of a huge breakthrough and Angelique Kerber made the semifinals at the US Open and won her first title at the Premier level Open GDF Suez in Paris last month. Not to mention veterans Vera Zvonareva and Li Na. With the level of talent in this section, Kvitova will have to play her best to successfully navigate the minefield.
Semi Finalist: Petra Kvitova (3)
Possible Sleeper: Angelique Kerber (18)
Best First Round Match: Vania King vs. Sara Errani
Third Quarter
Seeded Players: Caroline Wozniacki (4), Marion Bartoli (7), Francesca Schiavone (10), Ana
Ivanovic (15), Peng Shuai (17), Lucie Safarova (23), Monica Niculescu (26), Kaia Kanepi (29)
Caroline Wozniacki’s reign at the top of the tennis ended after the Australian Open and she’s dropped down to No. 4 in the rankings. As the defending champion, Wozniacki has a lot at stake. She could face Ekaterina Makarova early on, who recently reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, defeating Vera Zvonareva and Serena Williams on the way. With players like Ivanovic, Schiavone, and Bartoli also lurking in this section, there’s a real possibility Wozniacki will not be able to repeat her title. Bartoli had a lot of success at Indian Wells last year, reaching the final even though she had been ill that week. If she’s playing well this week, her draw should allow her to make it to the later stages of the tournament for a second year.
Semi Finalist: Marion Bartoli (7)
Possible Sleeper: Ana Ivanovic (15)
Best First Round Match: Ekaterina Makarova vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands
Fourth Quarter
Seeded Players: Maria Sharapova (2), Samantha Stosur (6), Sabine Lisicki (11), Dominika Cibulkova (16), Maria Kirilenko (20), Roberta Vinci (21), Petra Cetkovska (28), Nadia Petrova (30)
Maria Sharapova made an impressive run to the Australian Open finals in January and has made her way back to No. 2 in the world. Her quarter of the draw is stacked with stiff competition, but it is definitely her’s to lose. Samantha Stosur could pose a threat if she can get back to the form that won her the US Open last year. Sabine Lisicki is also a contender when she manages to stay healthy. The 2011 Wimbledon semifinalist is capable of beating almost any player on her good days, but can’t seem to stay healthy for any length of time.
Semi Finalist: Maria Sharapova (2)
Possible Sleeper: Sabine Lisicki (11)
Best First Round Match: Gisela Dulko vs. Jelena Dokic
Semi Final 1: Victoria Azarenka d. Petra Kvitova
Semi Final 2: Maria Sharapova d. Marion Bartoli
Final: Victoria Azarenka d. Maria Sharapova
Two Days in Rotterdam: A Love Affair With Tennis
It’s Valentine’s Day and this year, I want to tell you the story of how I fell in love with tennis. The ABN Amro World Tennis Tournament is one of those ATP 500 level tournaments that brings in the top tennis talent. Year after year the tournament draw is stacked big name players. This year’s list includes Roger Federer, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin del Potro, and Feliciano Lopez (well, not anymore), just to name a few. For me, this week of the year is a reminder of how much I love tennis. Two years ago, I walked into the AHOY Arena in Rotterdam on a Wednesday afternoon and purchased a ticket for the evening session. I was about to watch my first ever live tennis match. You might want to abandon reading this if you aren’t looking forward to hearing me wax poetic about the joys of live tennis.
I grew into my tennis fanaticism slowly, and by the time I realized my true love of our sport, I was living in St. Louis, Missouri. In case you’re not familiar with the tennis calendar, it doesn’t stop in St. Louis, or really anywhere even close. Then everything fell into place. I moved to London in January 2010 and as luck would have it I had a week off in February and nowhere to go. There was one obvious choice. I bought a ticket to Amsterdam that night and hopped a train to Rotterdam.
It was a short metro ride from the hotel to the stadium and I couldn’t have been more excited. This was what I had been waiting for, real live tennis. The players that I spent so much time reading about and watching on TV would finally be right in front of me. There was still about an hour before I could enter the stadium for the evening session, so I wandered around the massive indoor maze of AHOY to kill the time. That’s when I happened upon the practice courts. There were two of them in use, and I was mesmerized. This differs by tournament, but in Rotterdam the two main practice courts have a few rows of chairs on risers just about three feet from the short dividing wall between the players and their audience.
I plopped down in one of the empty seats, perhaps one of three people watching. More than an hour passed before I realized I’d watched two practice sessions and already missed the beginning of the evening’s main event. I was absolutely amazed, not just by how good these players really are, but by how much personality they had. Sure, some players have their quirks on court, but there’s only so much a player can do during a match. Some players were serious, some were pretty clowny, and some were downright strange.
I eventually made it to the main stadium. The first night, I had seats way up in the rafters (the stadium in Rotterdam is far larger than you would think). I think James Blake was playing Marcos Baghdatis. Again, I couldn’t have been happier, even if my view was far worse than it would have been watching the match on television. The atmosphere was great.
Anyway, you don’t need to hear more about my experience with live tennis. Just know that two days in Rotterdam became a weekend in Monte Carlo, a few days in Estoril, a sojourn in Paris, and trips to Newport, Washington, Toronto, and New York. That was just 2010. I left Rotterdam already making plans to watch my new favorite players, which was pretty much every player I saw that weekend. Sure, some of those have fallen by the wayside, but at least one of them stuck at a fanatical level. Someone I guarantee I never would have paid attention to unless I saw him live.
Now, why should you care about what a great time I had two years ago at a tournament most of you will never go near? You shouldn’t. But, I’d like to think that this experience resonates with some of you and encourages the rest of you to go out of your way a little. Book an impromptu trip to Shanghai or spend the next year planning your trip to Indian Wells. Just go watch some tennis.
Previewing the Davis Cup World Group First Round
There’s always a tennis lull for a week or two after a Grand Slam. How many of you were really paying attention to what happened in Zagreb or Montpellier or Viña del Mar? Tell the truth, do you even know where Viña del Mar is? Well, perk up, Davis Cup weekend is coming up. It’s an excellent way to ease back in to watching tennis. There are ties in watchable time zones for almost any part of the world and there are only three days to keep track of. Sounds too easy? Well, it kind of is. There are eight ties to keep track of, spanning three continents. Here’s a short guide to this weekend’s action.
Spain vs. Kazakhstan
Venue: Oviedo, Spain
Spain’s been the team to beat for the last several years, led by the nearly invincible Rafael Nadal. They’re the defending champions, and it would be embarrassing if they were to lose to Kazakhstan in the first round. Kazakhstan has exactly one player in the Top 100. Spain has thirteen, a veritable smorgasbord of options to compile a four man team. Spain’s top guys, Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer, have chosen to sit out, so the team will be led by No. 11, Nicolas Almagro. Throw in Marcel Granollers, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Marc Lopez for the doubles, and the home advantage and I’m pretty sure they will be able to conquer Team Kazakhstan.
Austria vs. Russia
Venue: Wiener Neustadt, Austria
This tie is notable because Alex Bogomolov, Jr. will be making his debut on the Russian Davis Cup team, as the top ranked player no less. Mikhail Youzhny will be second in command and coming in strong off both a singles title and a doubles title in Zagreb last week. Nikolay Davydenko and Igor Kunitsyn round off the Russian team. Team Austria has the hometown advantage but their star, Jurgen Melzer, has been struggling lately and they don’t have much in the way of depth.
Canada vs. France
Venue: Vancouver, Canada
Canada is kind of like the little engine that could. Not known for a strong tennis tradition, they put in a very impressive performance to beat Israel in the playoffs. But, France is no Israel. France is a Davis Cup power house. Much like Spain, their options for Top 100 players number in the double digits. They will also be bringing their two strongest players to Vancouver, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils. Versatile players Julien Benneteau and Michael Lloda will also make the trip. Either player can be called up for singles or doubles. Vasek Pospisil stepped up as the hero of the Israel tie, but it will take some serious team work to get past France. Canada will likely need a great performance from Milos Raonic.
Switzerland vs. USA
Venue: Fribourg, Switzerland
I’m not one of the believers that US tennis is dead, but I don’t give them great odds when it comes to beating Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka, on indoor clay, in Switzerland. Mardy Fish and John Isner are reasonable clay players, but neither is up to Federer’s level on any surface. The US can usually count on a doubles win by Bob and Mike Bryan, but Bob has chosen to sit out the tie to spend some time with his newborn daughter so Mike will be making the trip solo. He could play with either Fish or Isner, as both are fair doubles players, but they almost certainly won’t have the magic that Bob and Mike create. Switzerland might as well be a two man team. Federer and Wawrinka will play until the tie is won and the doubles will be good practice as they will be looking to defend their Olympic title this summer.
Czech Republic vs. Italy
Venue: Ostrava, Czech Republic
Tomas Berdych was triumphant last week in Montpellier and Radek Stepanek is fresh off a doubles title at the Australian Open. Much like Federer and Wawrinka, they will likely make up a two man team that should easily conquer the crafty Italians.
Serbia vs. Sweden
Venue: Nis, Serbia
Both of these teams will be missing their best players this weekend. Novak Djokovic is sitting out the tie and Robin Soderling has been sidelined since Wimbledon. Lucky for Serbia, they have two singles players in the Top 25 and Sweden doesn’t have a singles player in the Top 300. It’s going to be a tough ask for Michael Ryderstedt and Carl Bergman.
Japan vs. Croatia
Venue: Hyogo, Japan
Kei Nishikori is the high ranked Japanese player in history and the first to make it to the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam. He leads a reasonably strong team on home turf. I’m calling upset potential on this one. Croatia is a tough opponent, but if Nishikori can win his first singles match and Japan can swing the doubles, I would give them a strong chance.
Germany vs. Argentina
Venue: Bamberg, Germany
This is possibly the most interesting tie on the schedule for this weekend. Argentina had a rather gut wrenching loss to Spain in last year’s final and is still in search of their first Davis Cup crown. If Juan Martin del Potro was participating, I would give Argentina the strong edge. Even without their best player, Argentina has a very good team. Juan Monaco won his first title in five years last week and David Nalbandian always brings his best in Davis Cup. I honestly can’t reason out why Germany chose indoor clay. The Argentines love clay. Why not go for a hard court? Either way, the German team is also pretty strong this time around. There’s not really a weak link among Mayer, Kohlschreiber, Petzschner, and Haas.
Australian Open Take Aways
It’s possible you’re still reeling from the Australian Open men’s final. Sure, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal may have been the ones playing a physically grueling, nearly six hour final, but never underestimate how exhausting it is for the fans. For many fans the Australian Open means two weeks of sleepless nights and struggling to stay awake through normal daily activities. Dedicated fans of Nadal, Djokovic, and TENNIS, spent those six hours frazzling away in a sleep deprived delirium that will undoubtedly take weeks to recover from. It may be hard to look past Sunday’s events but there are many interesting take aways from the season’s first major.
Novak Djokovic can back up his 2011 results. It’s too early to tell if 2012 will yield the same amazing results as 2011 did for the world No. 1. It’s tough to think of many ways that 2012 could beat 2011 for the Serb. He won his second major title, and third, and fourth… He broke through to become the No. 1 player in the world and amassed an impressive 70-6 record for the year. A breakthrough year like that usually comes with an inevitable let down, yet Novak Djokovic certainly did not disappoint at the Australian Open. He did not sail through the draw as he did last year, but fought his way to a third title in Melbourne. This bodes well for his chances of maintaining his results this season.
Things are looking up for Andy Murray. It’s odd to say that Andy Murray’s performance in Melbourne was better than last year. He lost in the semifinals this year, while he made it through to the finals for the past two years. However, his level of play against Novak Djokovic in the semifinals was promising. He came into that match looking for the win and even when he was down in the fifth set, he kept his cool and came back to level the match. Win or lose, these days extending a match against Novak Djokovic to five sets is an accomplishment. Had things gone the slightest bit differently in that fifth set, it would have changed the outcome of the tournament.
Victoria Azarenka issued a statement to the WTA. How many times over the past year or two have you looked at the women’s draw at a Slam and seen that one top player has a clear run straight to the finals, only to watch them lose to some 18 year old you’ve never heard of in the second round? That is the inconsistency of the WTA these days. Azarenka took full advantage of the draw she was given. She didn’t hesitate. Perhaps most impressively, she kept her cool in her first major final, against a more experienced opponent, with the No. 1 ranking on the line.
Lleyton Hewitt’s not quite done yet. The two time grand slam champion hasn’t played much tennis over the last year due to injuries. Nearing his 31st birthday, many players would be considering retirement if they were in Hewitt’s shoes, but Hewitt has remained adamant that he will continue to play. He backed up his decision with an exciting four set, fourth round showdown on Rod Laver Arena with eventual champion Novak Djokovic. He may not be the slam favorite he was ten years ago, but Hewitt’s fighting spirit still makes for some very exciting tennis matches.
Maria Sharapova still has what it takes to win a major. The final was a blowout. There’s no denying it, but the way Sharapova played leading up to the final was very telling. She was confident even though she was presented with a draw including Gisela Dulko, Angelique Kerber, Sabine Lisicki, and Petra Kvitova. Now No. 3 in the world, it looks like Sharapova could add another trophy to her collection under the right circumstances.
Australia's Big Hope
Bernard Tomic has been heralded as the next big thing in Australian tennis for years now. With Lleyton Hewitt nearing the end of his career, it’s time for Aussie fans to look to the next generation. The good news is that Tomic shows a great deal of promise, already having made it to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon. The bad news is that Tomic is somewhat of a polarizing figure. A few years back, the newspapers picked up on a supposed feud between Tomic and Hewitt. Then he was accused of faking an illness during the 2011 Australian Open wildcard playoffs. More recently, Tomic has claimed that the police were harassing him by pulling him over for “hooning” in his BMW M3. “Hooning” is apparently Australian slang for driving recklessly.
The teenager is bursting with confidence. When asked about his first round match against Fernando Verdasco, who is a former Australian Open semifinals (2009) and was seeded 22 at this tournament, Tomic had plenty to say. Most players try to hype up their opponents, touting their talents even if a win is near guaranteed. How many times have you heard Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal tout the merits of a much lower ranked player? Instead, Tomic reminded the press that, “the last six months [Verdasco] hasn’t really done much. I think it’s a good time to play him.” It’s true that Verdasco did not have the best year in 2011, but he was still the higher ranked, more seasoned player. These kinds of statements can really come back to burn a player. Lucky for Tomic, he won, and he won in a rather spectacular fashion.
Tomic’s gutsy five set win over Verdasco went a long way to making me a believer. If his confidence gets him results, then so be it. It’s part of his game. Every player will say they believe they can win, that anything can happen. I think Tomic actually believes he can win any match. That’s how a lot of top players have made their way to the top. They were young and cocky, and believed they could beat the best. It’s just been a while since we’ve seen one of these phenoms follow through.
One of the big question marks around Tomic was his fitness. He looked tired in the third set against Verdasco, but in his post match interview hinted that was all part of his game plan, that he was lulling the Spaniard into a false sense of security. By sets four and five, Tomic looked like a new man, and the crowd was loving it. There’s really no better test of a player’s fitness than a close five set day match at the Australian Open, where it is almost always scorching. Clearly he has been putting in the effort off the court.
The chances Tomic can make a splash at this year’s Australian Open are slim. He faces American Sam Querrey in the second round, whose ranking has dropped due to spending much of last season out with an injury. After that, potential opponents include Alexandr Dolgopolov in the 3rd round and the mighty Roger Federer in the Round of 16. Add in the fact that media attention on Tomic will be at an all time high after Samantha Stosur crashed out in the 1st round, and the teenager will need all the confidence he can get this week.
Players Limp into the New Season
It shouldn’t really be a surprise. There were plenty of players injured by the end of last season, and the off season isn’t exactly long enough to heal just any injury. Yet somehow, I still expected everyone to turn up all bright and shiny and new at the Australian Open. It seems that just isn’t the case. As of January 9th, just one week before the first main draw matches will start in Melbourne, at least eight men have withdrawn from the Australian Open and at least five of the women. This does not include players who were forced to withdraw from matches this week, but have not yet decided against playing in Melbourne.
The withdrawals have been trickling in for months and the maladies range from possible career enders to minor injuries that should heal up in a couple of weeks. Notable absences include Alisa Kleybanova, who is still battling Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, Dinara Safin, whose chronic back problems have prevented her from playing since May, Robin Soderling, who’s having an awful bout with mononucleosis that has kept him out of competition since Wimbledon, Tommy Robredo, who has only played a couple of matches since March, Venus Williams, who revealed she has Sjogren’s Syndrome last year, and several others.
Even more concerning than the growing list of withdrawals from the tournament, is the almost equally long list of players who have injured themselves in the past week, yet still plan to compete. The almost inhuman Roger Federer tops the list of surprise injuries. He was forced to pull out before his semifinal in Doha last week due to a back injury. Federer has participated in forty eight consecutive Grand Slams, so I expect we’ll be seeing him come Monday. However, the real question is will we be seeing him come week two? Serena Williams, the 2010 champion, and Kim Clijsters, the 2011 champion, were both forced out of warm up tournaments with a sprained ankle and hip injury, respectively. Under normal circumstances, both women would be tournament favorites, but as it stands, the WTA field is wide open, which is a fairly common occurrence these days.
Sabine Lisicki, a 2011 Wimbledon semifinalist, doesn’t seem to have much luck when it comes to injuries. She was forced to retire from her match in Sydney with an abdominal strain, which seems like her thousandth injury on tour. Julia Goerges and Flavia Pennetta didn’t fare much better in Sydney. Julia came down with a viral illness and Flavia had to pull out of the tournament completely after retiring from her final match in Auckland.
Denis Istomin was a real winner in Brisbane when, after his first round opponent, Florian Mayer, was forced to retire, he received a walkover from the ailing Tommy Haas. Chennai appeared to be the most injury free tournament last week, with just one walkover to speak of.
If you can remember all the way back to September, we were all discussing the record number of withdrawals and retirements from the US Open. It seemed like each day more players would drop. The Australian Open is well known for its tough weather conditions, so add in the heat and exhaustion to the existing injuries. Will anyone make it to the end of Week 2?
What's at Stake? The Australian Open Edition
After what seemed like an eternity of an off season (oh wait, that was only three weeks?), the Australian summer swing is finally upon us and that means players have to start thinking about defending all those points from last year. Conversely, players who started 2011 with a bust have the chance to skyrocket up the rankings ladder. The biggest chance to score some points will come at the Australian Open in two weeks. Let’s take a look at which players have the most to gain and which players have the most to lose.
The Upside: Players with Room to Improve
Rafael Nadal – For most players, a Grand Slam quarterfinal is a great result. For Rafa, it’s a serious off day. Australia 2011 was the last Slam where Rafa failed to make it to the final. An injured Nadal lost in the quarterfinals to compatriot David Ferrer, which means that Australia 2012 is Nadal’s best chance to add the most points at a Slam in 2012. While there are plenty of rumors regarding a sore shoulder and a change in racket head weight, I think Nadal will show up in Australia ready to play. Australia hasn’t always been Rafa’s best Slam, but I would be surprised if he loses before the semifinals.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga – By the end of 2011, Tsonga had tied his career high ranking, and at number 6, it will be tough to climb much higher. However, Tsonga’s best performance at a Grand Slam was when he made the finals in Australia, so if ever there was a time to make a splash, it would be now. Tsonga had some great wins last year, over the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Juan Martin del Potro. Riding that kind of confidence, Jo may be able to pull off a big upset in Melbourne, assuming he can keep his head. Although, that’s a big assumption.
Mardy Fish – Mardy Fish had a career season in 2011 and it’s tough to imagine the 30 year old doing much better this year. The majority of Fish’s points to defend are in the second half of the season, which means that the best way to hedge his position or even jump up a spot or two in the rankings is to go deep at the Australian Open. Last year, Fish lost in the second round, which leaves heaps of room for improvement this year. Mardy will have the added bonus of being a Top 8 seed, which theoretically gives him a better draw.
Juan Martin del Potro – Juan Martin del Potro ended the 2010 season ranked 257 in the world. He is currently ranked 11. That’s quite a jump. There’s not quite as much room to improve this year, but it’s nearly inevitable that Delpo will crack the Top 10 after the Australian Open, if not before. Last year, Juan Martin fell to Marcos Baghdatis in the second round. Juan Martin played some amazing tennis last season and I expect to see great things from him in the coming year. I would not be surprised to see Delpo in the Top 5 by the end of 2012.
The Downside: Players Due for a Fall
Novak Djokovic – Could Novak Djokovic possibly match the year he had last year? No. Novak Djokovic tore through the draw in Melbourne last year, and then proceeded to win pretty much everything until the US Open. He was undefeated until the French Open, where he lost in the semifinals to Roger Federer. Djokovic has won the Australian Open twice, and he’s definitely a favorite going in to 2012. However, considering his success last year, there’s really nowhere to go but down.
David Ferrer – The diminutive Spaniard managed a big upset, taking out Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals of the 2011 Australian Open. At number 5 in the world, it’s very unlikely that Ferrer will be able to crack into the Top 4, considering their dominance. Again, that means little room for improvement, and lots of room for fallout.
Robin Soderling – Unfortunately, Soderling has been plagued by injury for most of 2011 and it seems like these woes will be continuing in 2012. He is planning to skip out on the Australian Open, where he would have been defending fourth round points. He will also be losing out on championship points from Brisbane and if he’s not fit by February, his points from Rotterdam and Marseille will disappear as well.